This is Part 1 in an occasional series of Cheat Sheet posts geared at getting us engaged fully in the very real truth of global warming. Many around me are struggling to absorb the information and to grasp the immediacy of the catastrophe we face. So I said I’d write this series as the pertinent information rolls in. 

Part 1 here gives a digestible rundown of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC). This is the MEGA, WHOPPING, SCARY  report, summing the work of almost 100 experts, which was released October 2018. This is THE definitive report that has got the world panicked, finally, providing a terrifying – but unavoidably true – picture of what the world will look like in 2030 and 2050 based on our level of action or inaction. You have to know this shit. Read it. Pass it on.

Part 2 covers what the experts are saying we must do to make a difference, if any (there is some chance we’ll make it through this, but we must act FAST).

Part 3 gives a rundown of 8 Global Warming Conversation Starters that *actually* have cut-through

What do you do when the boy has cried wolf and all the ostriches are digging their heads in the sand? You keep going.

The very words “climate change” make eyes glaze over. Greenwashing, eco fake-newsing, the bulldozering power of consumption etc have rendered the topic numbing. And just as we hit the apocalypse, too. Would you believe it?!

Right now, we are frogs in the proverbial pot of water on the stove. The water’s been warming slowly but now it’s about to boil. Those of us who are still intensely and passionately alive to the topic are jumping up and down, frustrated, scared, screaming out for all the other frogs to get it. And so we should be. There is no other way to be but so blunt. As David Suzuki says:

In October 2018, the erstwhile moderate and ameliorating climate scientists have hit the panic button. They are using the words genocide, apocalypse and dire. They. Are. Freaking. The F*ck. Out.

The alarm stems from the United Nations’ scientific advisory board’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which officially, categorically issued a “dire” warning. The report is based on more than 6000 cited studies, written by 91 authors from 40 countries and pivots from the Paris agreement targets. It is a collective scream, never heard before from such a body. I’m sorely tempted to inject hyperbole and exclamation points. But we’re numb to such things. Aren’t we. Simply know this:

The IPCC report is as legit as it gets and if there’s one report you need to know about, it’s this one. Cool?

I thought it could be good give a bit a digestible rundown of this shit sandwich to enable us all to share the word with a bit more ease over water coolers or whatever.

I’ll help you cheat further – the Intelligencer piece a third of the way down is the long-form read you should choose if short on time. I’m not an expert. I just read a lot and I’m sharing what the algorithms might have buried in your news feed. Please do share any other links or helpful through-lines in the comments.

The Sarah Wilson IPCC Cheat Sheet

I’ve broken things down via links to good reads. I’ve highlighted the salient points from what are quite complex reads, but do digest the whole articles if you have time.

This New Yorker article explains how even hitting the Paris targets (that no one is hitting) will see the planet ruined by the time your toddler is your age. 

That 1.5 C temperature increase goal that the scientists are trying to get everyone to agree to? Yeah, well, to have even a vague chance of hitting it, the whole world will have to halve emissions by the time young kids today hit high school (2030), and be reduced to zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Alarmed? It gets worse. All the scenarios that the IPCC could come up with to limit warming to 1.5 C rely on some kind of “carbon-dioxide removal”, essentially technologies to suck CO2 out of the air (while we cut back on the emissions). But, shit! such technology doesn’t exist. And is decades from coming to fruition.

 

This essay spells out how bad life will look by 2040 if we stick to current targets.

That is, if we achieve a “mere” 1.5C increase. Just a teaser:

  • In just 20 years from now, at least 10 million people will be living in permanent inundation. That is, they’ll be under water. Think Rio de Janeiro, Miami, Osaka.
  • 99% of coral reefs will be dead, including the Great Barrier Reef. Gone. Forever. Got young kids or grandchildren. Think about this.

It then makes this observation (brace yourself) that this mere 1.5C is actually impossible to achieve:

“Even if every country met the commitment it made in the Paris Agreement, the temperature would still increase to 3 degrees above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.”

Oh, but it gets even worserer:

“If the world continues burning fossil fuels and emitting greenhouse gases at the current rate, it could rise by 4 degrees—a fact that the Trump Administration, which withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, in June, 2017, (has) acknowledged.”

So…

This Intelligencer article in New York magazine lays out what the world will look like at 2C, 3C and 4C (the more likely scenarios!).

It points out that “civilisation is at stake” and refers to things as “climate genocide”. It stresses that the consensus is a 4 degree increase is most likely within this course of this ventures and breaks down how the pot will hit boiling point.

At 2 degrees:

This is the expected increase by 2040, not 1.5C.

  • The melting of ice sheets will pass a tipping point of collapse, flooding dozens of the world’s major cities this century.

It is predicted New York City will be flooded within 30 years. Will Manhattan be ready? Nope.

“Even if we began building (a sea barrier) today, the barrier would not be finished in time to save Howard Beach and other parts of southern Queens and Brooklyn.”

  • Global GDP, per capita, will be cut by 13 percent.
  • 400 million more people will suffer from water scarcity, and even in the northern latitudes heat waves will kill thousands each summer. It will be worse in the planet’s equatorial band. There would be 32 times as many extreme heat waves, each lasting five times as long and exposing, in total, 93 times more people.

At 3 degrees: 

Which is the conservative expectation for the state of the world by the end of this century…

  • Southern Europe will be in permanent drought. The average drought in Central America would last 19 months and in the Caribbean 21 months. In northern Africa, the figure is 60 months — five years.
  • The areas burned each year by wildfires would double in the Mediterranean and sextuple in the United States.
  • Sea-level rising will swallow Miami Beach to Jakarta.

At 4 degrees:

The more likely scenario…

  • There would be 8 million cases of dengue fever each year in Latin America alone.
  • Global grain yields could fall by as much as 50 percent, producing annual or close-to-annual food crises.
  • The global economy will be more than 30 % smaller, and we would see at least half again as much conflict and warfare as we do today. Possibly more.

This bit made me weep and stare at my screen wide-eyed:

“If you are alarmed by those sentences, you should be — they are horrifying. But it is, actually, worse than that — considerably worse. That is because the new report’s worst-case scenario is, actually, a best case. In fact, it is a beyond-best-case scenario. What has been called a genocidal level of warming is already our inevitable future. The question is how much worse than that it will get.”

What the scientists are saying is, “you now have permission to freak out.”Click To Tweet

You can get some visuals of the difference between 1.5C and 2C here.

And here.

How long do we have to change things?  The Washington Post says 10 years.

I will discuss what needs to happen for change to be effective in following posts. For now know this:

To avoid racing past warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels would require a “rapid and far-reaching” transformation of human civilization at a magnitude that has never happened before.

This article says 10 years is not soon enough.

It’s now or never, friends.

The question now is do you want to stay in the pot? Do you want to do something. The next instalment – Part 2 The earth is in a death spiral – covers what you can do. Please share this post widely. Talk about it with friends. Act. Now! Please?

Have your say, leave a comment.